SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

This report has discussed

• significant new discoveries that open large new geologic plays;
• technological innovations and new concepts (e.g., hydrate potential, impact of loop currents, and LNG terminals) that may have significant effects on the energy outlook of the GOM;
• sustained deepwater leasing activity and stabilized average bid amounts per block;
• deepwater leaseholdings of major oil and gas companies compared with nonmajor companies, showing the increased presence of nonmajor companies;
• future deepwater lease availability and anticipated lease expirations;
• declines in deepwater drilling;
• the progression of exploration activities, and the resulting discoveries, into the ultra-deep frontier;
• the extension of development activities and infrastructure, which include subsea wells, hubs, and pipelines reaching into ever deeper waters;
• the anticipated large deepwater reserve additions, especially when unproved reserves, known resources, and recent industry-announced discoveries are considered;
• the large increase in average deepwater field sizes when compared with same-year, shallow-water discoveries;
• predictions for future large deepwater field discoveries;
• the increasing contribution of deepwater oil and gas production toward total GOM production;
• the domination by major oil companies in deepwater production, led by Shell and BP; and
• the production rates of deepwater wells exceeding those of shallow-water wells by 800 to 2,000 percent.

Figure 71. Deepwater projects that began production in 2003 and those expected to begin production by yearend 2007. (Click the image to enlarge)

Twelve deepwater projects began production in 2003, another 13 are expected to begin in 2004, and many more are expected in the following years.

In addition to the projects shown in figure 71, many more are likely to come online in the next few years, but are not shown because operators have not yet announced their plans.

• Development Cycle
• Drilling the Lease Inventory
• Expanding Frontier